You can't predict startup success if you don't launch it. Prove me wrong.

People think building startups is hard. That's a lie. Don't spend time predicting your success. Because it's impossible! Prove me wrong

Meme "Prove me wrong"

Over time, you get the special ability to filter some ideas. You can recognize patterns, spot trends, and understand the most efficient way to build a successful project or startup.

It already works for me. I can approximately estimate traction for each of the projects I am doing. However, even after tens of startup launches, I make a lot of mistakes when "estimating". I still make the wrong bet more often than I'd like.

The best way to improve my prediction skills is to continue experimenting and testing different ideas. When you launch a startup, you're not only gaining an understanding of what works and what doesn't but also building your prediction muscle and making more informed decisions in the future.

The more projects you launch, the more likely it is that at least one of them will achieve something.  This is why it's so important not to give up when the going gets tough – because with each failed project you gain valuable insight into what does and doesn't work.

It's really important to do MVP projects and just keep going. Ideally, you should have one project/job that generates revenue for you to launch side-projects without thinking «Will this work or not». Just do it.

Look at successful businesses at the beginning. In 80%, these were clumsy MVPs 🙂

However, these businesses now cost millions and sometimes billions of dollars! In my opinion, simplicity does correlate with success. The simpler the project that gives value –> the more traction it can get in the beginning

Same with startups and everything else. There is a problem that the user has (sometimes hidden) –> there could be a project that solves this problem.

"Maybe do some research?"

Well, only if it's easier than just launching the startup. Why do I need to research, if it’s easier (and more profitable) to start and check what works in practice?

The truth is that you can't predict startup success if you don't build it. The best way to improve your prediction skills and increase the chances of success for your startups is to simply keep launching new projects, testing them in the real world, and gaining valuable insights from each experience.


In order to increase your chances for success with a startup, you need to build it and test it in the real world. Experimentation is key - the more projects you launch, the more valuable insight you gain into what works and what doesn't. Additionally, having one project/job that generates revenue can help with launching side projects without worrying about their success.

So how to launch projects and make money?

That's exactly what I write about to the solopreneurs who are subscribed to my email list. Not subscribed? Do it now, while it is free.